🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."