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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.